Predicting the climate impact of aviation for en-route emissions: the algorithmic climate change function submodel ACCF 1.0 of EMAC 2.53

Using climate-optimized flight trajectories is one essential measure to reduce aviation's climate impact. Detailed knowledge of temporal and spatial climate sensitivity for aviation emissions in the atmosphere is required to realize such a climate mitigation measure. The algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) represent the basis for such purposes. This paper presents the first version of the Algorithmic Climate Change Function submodel (ACCF 1.0) within the European Centre HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model framework. In the ACCF 1.0, we implement a set of aCCFs (version 1.0) to estimate the average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20) resulting from aviation CO2 emissions and non-CO2 impacts, such as NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail cirrus. While the aCCF concept has been introduced in previous research, here, we publish a consistent set of aCCF formulas in terms of fuel scenario, metric, and efficacy for the first time. In particular, this paper elaborates on contrail aCCF development, which has not been published before. ACCF 1.0 uses the simulated atmospheric conditions at the emission location as input to calculate the ATR20 per unit of fuel burned, per NOx emitted, or per flown kilometre.In this research, we perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. The comparison confirms that in the Northern Hemisphere between 150–300 hPa altitude (flight corridor), the vertical and latitudinal structure of NOx-induced ozone and H2O effects are well represented by the ACCF model output. The NOx-induced methane effects increase towards lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which behaves differently from the existing literature. For contrail cirrus, the climatological pattern of the ACCF model output corresponds with the literature, except that contrail-cirrus aCCF generates values at low altitudes near polar regions, which is caused by the conditions set up for contrail formation. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced ozone effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). The simulation results show that climate-optimized trajectories reduce the radiative forcing contribution from aviation NOx-induced ozone compared to cost-optimized trajectories. Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effects is considered. Based on the 1 d simulation results of a subset of European flights, the total ATR20 of the climate-optimized flights is significantly lower (roughly 50 % less) than that of the cost-optimized flights, with the most considerable contribution from contrail cirrus. The CO2 contribution observed in this study is low compared with the non-CO2 effects, which requires further diagnosis.

From least cost to least risk: Producing climate change mitigation plans that are resilient to multiple risks

Our plans to tackle climate change could be thrown off-track by shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the energy supply crisis driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, financial crises and other such disruptions. We should therefore identify plans which are as resilient as possible to future risks, by systematically understanding the range of risks to which mitigation plans are vulnerable and how best to reduce such vulnerabilities. Here, we use electricity system decarbonization as a focus area, to highlight the different types of technological solutions, the different risks that may be associated with them, and the approaches, situated in a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) paradigm, that would allow the identification and enhanced resilience of mitigation pathways. Copyright © 2023 Gambhir and Lempert.

COVID-19 as an Energy Intervention: Lockdown Insights for HCI

As the operation of buildings accounts for around 30% of global CO2 emissions, reducing their energy consumption is considered crucial for climate change mitigation. Aware of this significance, the sustainable HCI (SHCI) community has conducted research on energy consumption for over 15 years. However, compared with domestic environments, commercial organisations are comprised of complex mixed-use buildings, and the socio-technical understanding of space and resulting energy use are relatively under-explored. In this late-breaking work, we present the initial findings of a longitudinal analysis that uses building energy data from a period covering the COVID-19 lockdown measures to help identify the energy associated with these buildings and their users. Viewing the pandemic as a unique, grand-scale 'energy intervention', the resulting consumption patterns are used to inform questions about leverage points for achieving change, stakeholder agency vs. infrastructure demand;and highlight the importance of putting energy data in context. © 2023 Owner/Author.

Biomimetic Architecture and Its Role in Developing Sustainable, Regenerative, and Livable Cities: Global Perspectives and Approaches in the Age of COVID-19

This book focuses on understanding biomimetic architecture and its role as a sustainable design tool. It presents the role of biomimicry in mitigation and adaptation to climate change and examines how biomimetic architecture can provide healthy solutions to limit the spread of COVID-19 in buildings and cities. Coverage includes global examples of biomimetic approaches and buildings, an evaluation of the performance of biomimicry applications in architecture to illustrate best practices, and an exploration of how nature can offer inspiration in building design to conserve resources and save energy use as well as curb carbon emissions - a reaffirmed goal of COP 26 and an outcome of Glasgow Climate Pact. Finally, the book presents guidelines to enhance urban areas and healthier spaces in buildings to meet COVID-19 social distance regulations and beyond. • Examines global applications of biomimicry in architecture;• Highlights the importance of biomimicry in driving livability in cities and buildings;• Explores the role of biomimetic architecture in mitigating climate change. "The line of argument developed is highly relevant to the present, in addition to being original and pertinent to research on urban regeneration, especially in regard to the exploration of the use of biomimicry architecture in response to changing urban demands.” -Alessandra Battisti, Ph.D., Professor of Architecture, University of Rome La Sapienza. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Preface

Following the success of 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2021 International Conference on Science & Technology Applications in Climate Change (STACLIM), the Institute of Climate Change (IPI), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) is proud to extend our promotion of research and education for the advancement of climate change studies. The 2022 International Conference on Science & Technology Applications in Climate Change (STACLIM 2022) with the theme "Climate change mitigation action through the lens of science and technology” is the fifth in the series of conferences organized by IPI. This year the conference was carried out in virtual form through the Webex platform (29 – 30 November 2022) due to the COVID-19 travel restriction. Through the virtual form, the science community is able to share their research findings in time.The aim of this conference is to bring together researchers in fields of Environmental Science, Health Sustainability, Mathematics, Sustainable Energy, Economic Sustainability, Socio-Cultural Studies, Social Science, Atmospheric Science, and related fields, to present their research findings as well as create new opportunities for future research collaborations. This event is envisaged to witness active participation from various eminent environmental and earth scientists, engineers and students from academia, industry and government sectors for addressing complications associated with climate change and to draw forth novel and ground-breaking initiatives and solutions for climate resilience.The plenary sessions in the main room were opened by two keynote speeches from leading experts including Prof. Dr. Lisa Stein from University of Alberta, Canada on "Microbial Solutions to Mitigating Climate Change”, Prof. Dr. Haruko Kurihara from University of Ryukyus, Japan, on "Ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystem and its potential mitigation solutions”. As the keynote session was open for public registration, we had participants joining the event. It was then followed by the invited speaker sessions consisting of Prof. Dr. Fredolin Tangang (UKM), Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rawshan Ara Begum (Macquarie University, Australia), Dr. Shantanu Kumar Pani (National Central University, Taiwan) and Mr. Saud Aldrees (University of Oxford, England). The program was then continued with oral presentation of 72 papers in 3 parallel breakout rooms. Each presenter was given up to 15 mins for presentation and Q&A sessions. There were additional 13 non-presenters who joined in during the presentation session. Presenters and participants have attended the conference from their respective countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, India, and Ukraine.The conference went well with great support and synergy of the staff and personnel from Institute of Climate Change, UKM. To document and promulgate the research findings and ideas shared, we are very pleased to publish the accepted research papers of STACLIM 2022 in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (EES).The EditorsList of Organizing Committee is available in this Pdf.

Ecology in the age of climate change: Challenges facing the effective implementation of nature-based solutions in terrestrial ecosystems

At this stage of the Great Acceleration of the Anthropocene, humanity is experiencing the global issues of worsening climate change impacts, devastating damage from more frequent and severe natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic, all of which are attributable to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss. The global community recognises that these issues pose severe societal and economic risks. “Nature-based solutions” have been posited as a means to address these threats. Nature-based solutions utilise natural terrestrial ecosystem functions to provide environmental, social and economic benefits at low cost. The growing social demand for nature-based solutions constitutes an opportunity for the field of ecology to expand beyond the conventional focus on biodiversity and conservation and shift to presenting biodiversity and ecosystem functions as the basis of human well-being and social sustainability. We sought to identify a trajectory for ecological research that is aimed at contributing to the effective implementation of nature-based solutions. First, we summarise current social needs related to terrestrial ecosystem utilisation. Next, we provide an overview of existing literature and knowledge regarding biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystem function, which are critical to nature-based solutions. Finally, we identify outstanding ecological hurdles to the implementation of these strategies and propose a way forward based on our findings. We explain that any basic presentation of ecological processes requires addressing the impacts of climate change and the interrelatedness of biodiversity, climate and social systems. Enhanced ecological process models are critical for linking biodiversity and ecosystems with climate and social systems. It is crucial to establish a framework that embeds monitoring systems, data infrastructure and delivery systems within society to mobilise terrestrial ecosystem and biodiversity data and results. Furthermore, the implementation of nature-based solutions must include acknowledging trade-offs in objectives and transdisciplinary research with other fields and stakeholders with the shared goal of transformative change. Ecological research must demonstrate more clearly how terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems are linked to human health and well-being, as well as how they are affected by production and consumption systems. In the age of climate change, the knowledge and tools of the ecologist form the foundation of nature-based solutions and provide an indispensable theoretical basis for this approach.Alternate :æŠ„éŒ²äººæ–°ä¸–ã®å¤§åŠ é€Ÿã¨ã‚‚å‘¼ã°ã‚Œã‚‹æ°—å€™å¤‰å‹•ã®æ™‚ä»£ã«ãŠã„ã¦ã€æ°—å€™å¤‰å‹•å½±éŸ¿ã®é¡•åœ¨åŒ–ã€è‡ªç„¶ç½å®³ã®æ¿€ç”šåŒ–ãƒ»é »ç™ºåŒ–ã€COVID-19の世界的流行などの地球規模の問題が増大している。国際社会では、ã"ã‚Œã‚‰ã®å•é¡Œã¯ç”Ÿæ…‹ç³»ã®åŠ£åŒ–ã‚„ç”Ÿç‰©å¤šæ§˜æ€§ã®æå¤±ãŒè¦å› ã§ã‚ã‚‹ã"と、そして社会経済にも多大な損害ã‚'与える大きなリスクであるã"とが共通の認識となりつつある。そのような状況ã‚'åæ˜ ã—ã€é™¸åŸŸç”Ÿæ…‹ç³»ã®å¤šé¢çš„ãªæ©Ÿèƒ½ã‚'活用するã"とで、低いコストでç'°å¢ƒãƒ»ç¤¾ä¼šãƒ»çµŒæ¸ˆã«ä¾¿ç›Šã‚'もたらし、社会が抱える複数の課題の解決に貢献する「自然ã‚'基盤とした解決策」という新しい概念に大きな期待が寄せられている。ã"の解決策への社会的なニーズの高まりは、生態学が長年取り組ã‚"できた生物多様性や生態系の保全に関する課題ã‚'超えて、生態学が生物多様性や生態系が豊かな人é–"社会ã‚'継続し発展させる知的基盤となるã"とや、生態学の社会的有用性ã‚'示す機会である。そã"で本稿では、気候変動時代における「自然ã‚'åŸºç›¤ã¨ã—ãŸè§£æ±ºç­–ã€ã®å®Ÿè·µã«å‘ã‘ãŸç”Ÿæ…‹å­¦ç ”ç©¶ã®æ–¹å‘ã¥ã‘ã‚'目的とし、陸域生態系の活用に対する社会的なニーズの現状ã‚'概観する。その上で、「自然ã‚'åŸºç›¤ã¨ã—ãŸè§£æ±ºç­–ã€ã®éµã¨ãªã‚‹é™¸åŸŸç”Ÿæ ‹ç³»ã®ç”Ÿç‰©å¤šæ§˜æ€§ã‚„ç”Ÿæ…‹ç³»æ©Ÿèƒ½ã«é–¢ã™ã‚‹çŸ¥è¦‹ã‚'整理して課題ã‚'抽出し、ã"れらã‚'è¸ã¾ãˆã¦ä»Šå¾Œã®ç”Ÿæ…‹å­¦ç ”ç©¶ã®æ–¹å‘æ€§ã‚'å…·ä½"的に示す。まず、現象の基礎的な理解という観点からは、生物多様性ã‚'含む陸域生態系と気候システムや社会システムとの相äº'関係性ã‚'含めた包括的な気候変動影響のメカニズムの解明と、予測・評価のためのプロセスモデルの高度化ã‚'進めるã"と、そして同時に、陸域生態系と生物多様性の変化ã‚'ç¤ºã™ãŸã‚ã®åŠ¹æžœçš„ãªãƒ¢ãƒ‹ã‚¿ãƒªãƒ³ã‚°ã¨æƒ…å ±åŸºç›¤ã®å¼·åŒ–ã‚'行い、データや分析結果ã‚'社会に還元するフレームワークã‚'構築するã"ã¨ãŒå„ªå…ˆäº‹é …ã§ã‚ã‚‹ã€‚ã‚ˆã‚Šå®Ÿè·µçš„ãªè¦³ç‚¹ã‹ã‚‰ã¯ã€ã€Œè‡ªç„¶ã‚'基盤とした解決策」の実装や社会変革などにおいて共通の目標ã‚'ã‚‚ã¤ä»–åˆ†é‡Žã¨ã®å­¦éš›ç ”ç©¶ã‚'積極的に行うã"とにより、実装における目的é–"のトレードオフã‚'示すã"と、健康・福祉の課題や生産・消費システムの中での陸域生態系や生物多様性への影響や役割ã‚'示すã"ã¨ãªã©ãŒå„ªå…ˆäº‹é …ã¨ãªã‚‹ã€‚æ°—å€™å¤‰å‹•ã«ä»£è¡¨ã•ã‚Œã‚‹ä¸ç¢ºå®Ÿæ€§ã®é«˜ã„ç'°å¢ƒä¸‹ã§ã€åŠ¹æžœçš„な「自然ã‚'åŸºç›¤ã¨ã—ãŸè§£æ±ºç­–ã€ã®å®Ÿæ–½ãŸã‚ã«ã¯ã€ãã®ç§‘å­¦çš„åŸºç›¤ã¨ãªã‚‹ç”Ÿæ…‹å­¦ã®çŸ¥è¦‹ã¨ãƒ„ãƒ¼ãƒ«ã¯ä¸å¯æ¬ ã§ã‚ã‚Šã€ã¾ãŸãã®å®Ÿè£…ã‚'通じた社会変革へのé"筋においても生態学の貢献が期待されている。

Most industrialised countries have peaked carbon dioxide emissions during economic crises through strengthened structural change.

As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965-2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms.

Energy Sufficiency in the Passenger Transport of Lithuania

This paper aims to understand the significance of energy sufficiency (ES) in passenger transport for the long-term resolution of energy, climate, and sustainable development issues in Lithuania. It computes related indicators, by fixing the passenger-kilometres (pkm) travelled by various modes of transportation and applying a scenario analysis with the MESSAGE model. The findings indicated that the country's final energy consumption (FEC) in transportation could be reduced by 21.8% by 2050 due to slowing growth rate of distances travelled by passenger car but increasing use of public transport and bicycles. This would result in a decrease in the growth rate of primary energy consumption (PEC) by half (to 0.3% a year), an increase in the use of renewable energy sources (RES) to 67.2% in the PEC structure, savings of oil products by 6.4 TWh, and savings of new electricity generation capacity by 550 MW. Furthermore, 20 MtCO2eq. in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions could be realised between 2021 and 2050. To take advantage of the potential of ES, the policy measures of passenger car demand containment and a shift to non-motorised and less polluting modes of transportation should be implemented. Furthermore, priority should be given to policy measures that encourage use of public transportation.

War and pandemic do not jeopardize Germans' willingness to support climate measures.

How do the impacts of acute crises influence citizens' willingness to support different types of climate measures? An acute crisis can be understood either as an impediment or as an opportunity for climate change mitigation. In the first perspective, crisis impacts would create negative spill-overs and dampen citizens' willingness to support climate action, while in the second perspective, the opposite would occur. Based on a survey experiment fielded in Germany in 2022 (n = 5438), we find that the economic implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War do not decrease behavioral willingness, while restrictions of civil liberties to combat the COVID-19 pandemic lead to higher climate support, underpinning the crisis-as-opportunity perspective. Willingness to support climate measures is strongest among (1) those most concerned about climate change, and (2) those who trust the government. We conclude that individuals do not wish climate change mitigation to be deprioritized on the back of other crises.

Prioritising Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours and Exploring Public Health Co-Benefits: A Delphi Study.

Climate change requires urgent action; however, it can be challenging to identify individual-level behaviours that should be prioritised for maximum impact. The study aimed to prioritise climate change mitigation behaviours according to their impacts on climate change and public health, and to identify associated barriers and facilitators-exploring the impact of observed behaviour shifts associated with COVID-19 in the UK. A three-round Delphi study and expert workshop were conducted: An expert panel rated mitigation behaviours impacted by COVID-19 in relation to their importance regarding health impacts and climate change mitigation using a five-point Likert scale. Consensus on the importance of target behaviours was determined by interquartile ranges. In total, seven target behaviours were prioritised: installing double/triple glazing; installing cavity wall insulation; installing solid wall insulation; moving away from meat/emission heavy diets; reducing the number of cars per household; walking shorter journeys; and reducing day/weekend leisure car journeys. Barriers related to the costs associated with performing behaviours and a lack of complementary policy-regulated subsidies. The target behaviours are consistent with recommendations from previous research. To ensure public uptake, interventions should address behavioural facilitators and barriers, dovetail climate change mitigation with health co-benefits and account for the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on these behaviours.

Japanese urban household carbon footprints during early-stage COVID-19 pandemic were consistent with those over the past decade.

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, substantial energy and services are required to meet the demand from cities, making cities major contributors to adverse environmental consequences. To bridge the knowledge gap in the absence of fine-grained city-level climate protection measures due to data availability and accuracy, this study provides a detailed carbon emission inventory for analyzing the monthly fluctuations based on citizens' daily consumption behaviors. Here, carbon emissions embodied in approximately 500 household consumption items were calculated in 47 prefectural-level cities in Japan from 2011 to June 2021. We analyzed the results considering the regional, seasonal, demand, and emission way-specific aspects, and compared the emission before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the carbon footprints during the pandemic were consistent with the previous level despite downtrends in specific categories. This study provides an example of utilizing city-level emission data to improve household green consumption behavior as references for enriching city-level decarbonization paths.

Low-carbon tourism for island destinations: A crucial alternative for sustainable development

The impact of climate change has been evidenced in several tourist destinations, and triggered concerns on the destination development. Low-carbon tourism has become a national, if not, global agenda that can be used to mitigate the climate change impact caused by the tourist destinations. To respond to this timely agenda and the United Nation World Tourism Organisation's (UNWTO) callout, this study establishes and verifies important components and attributes of low-Carbon destinations, particularly on island destination, which are still unexamined in the literature. Taking on the perspective of tourists, this study is driven by Stimulus–Organism–Response (S-O-R) theory which is a consolidative theoretical framework that integrates environmental input (external), emotional status (internal) and behavioural responses to explain actual behaviours of low-carbon tourists. Integrated generalised structured component analysis (IGSCA) and multigroup analysis were performed on 1808 travellers who posed different degrees of psychological fear of the COVID-19 pandemic. During COVID-19, health and safety risks have become a critical concern;therefore, this study further explores the moderating effect of risk from the perspective of the low- and high-perceived risk travellers, before identifying the attitude-behaviour gaps of these two groups. The study provides theoretical insights into low-carbon tourism experience at the island destinations and offers useful managerial implications on low-carbon destination development. © 2022 ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategy based on Local Climate Zone Classification using Landsat 8 satellite imagery

Appropriate strategies on urban climate mitigation should be formulated by considering the physical morphology of the urban landscape. This study aimed to investigate, analyze, and promote possible strategies to mitigate Jakarta’s urban heat island (UHI) phenomena. Jakarta’s local climate zone (LCZ) was classified into 17 classes using Landsat 8 data and the random forest method. Land surface temperature (LST) characteristic in each LCZ class was analyzed from 2018, 2019 and 2020. The result revealed that most of the local climate zone in Jakarta is dominated by LCZ 6 (open low-rise) and LCZ 3 (compact low-rise), which is the typical residential area in Jakarta. However, the mean LST in 2018, 2019 and 2020 showed that LCZ 3 (compact low-rise) and LCZ 7 (lightweight low-rise) are the areas that were most likely causing high surface temperature with the highest UHI intensity. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, LST in Jakarta decreased drastically in some parts of the area, especially in public facility such as airport. However, the LST value in low-rise areas (LCZ 3 and LCZ 7) remains higher than the other LCZ classes. Materials of the building and land cover play a significant role in raising the land surface temperature. Therefore, mitigation strategies for urban heat islands in Jakarta should be focused on such particular areas mentioned.

Low-carbon tourism for island destinations: A crucial alternative for sustainable development

The impact of climate change has been evidenced in several tourist destinations, and triggered concerns on the destination development. Low-carbon tourism has become a national, if not, global agenda that can be used to mitigate the climate change impact caused by the tourist destinations. To respond to this timely agenda and the United Nation World Tourism Organisation's (UNWTO) callout, this study establishes and verifies important components and attributes of low-Carbon destinations, particularly on island destination, which are still unexamined in the literature. Taking on the perspective of tourists, this study is driven by Stimulus-Organism-Response (S-O-R) theory which is a consolidative theoretical framework that integrates environmental input (external), emotional status (internal) and behavioural responses to explain actual behaviours of low-carbon tourists. Integrated generalised structured component analysis (IGSCA) and multigroup analysis were performed on 1808 travellers who posed different degrees of psychological fear of the COVID-19 pandemic. During COVID-19, health and safety risks have become a critical concern;therefore, this study further explores the moderating effect of risk from the perspective of the low- and high-perceived risk travellers, before identifying the attitude-behaviour gaps of these two groups. The study provides theoretical insights into low-carbon tourism experience at the island destinations and offers useful managerial implications on low-carbon destination development.

Arriving at a natural solution: Bundling credits to access rangeland carbon markets

On the Ground•Natural solutions, such as “avoided conversion of grasslands,” offer agricultural land managers a way to mitigate climate change while monetizing climate benefits.•Managers who avoid converting grasslands to other uses, such as row crops, can quantify the amount of stored carbon and sell credits, but high costs of developing carbon credit projects price many landowners out of the carbon market.•Aggregation can create economies of scale, which lower barriers of entry and allow more landowners to participate in the market.•Given the current low prices in the carbon market, aggregation is not a panacea and aggregated projects are not financially viable for many landowners.•As the demand for carbon credits continues to grow, land managers can position themselves to take advantage of carbon market opportunities should prices increase, and projects become financially viable.

ACHIEVING GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL WITH THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN COVID-19 PERIOD

The study inquired the role of financial development (FD) on climate change control in COVID-19 period to identify the ways useful to achieve greenhouse gas mitigation in BRICS economies. BRICS countries are included because of their high energy-environment dependence and their need for climate financing through FD promoting greenhouse gas emission. The projected role of FD activity on climate change mitigation is inferred using the generalized methods of moments (GMM). The study results indicated that five out of the six climate change mitigation indicators have a long-term correlation with BRICS’s CO2 emissions. On the other side, there is no evidence of integration between variables in Russia. Moreover, the findings revealed that there 18% rise in FD is estimated, this raised the probability of effective climate change mitigation by 39% in the post-COVID-period, and it reduces greenhouse gas mitigations by 24.7%. The results also highlighted that there is a one-way correlation between energy use and climate drifts. On these findings, policymakers and environmental regulators in BRICS could take inspiration from our study to plan and revisit greenhouse gas mitigation through proper environmental legislation. Additionally, it also encourages other countries and economies to perform comparable assessments and select the best course of action. Hence, this study provides detailed and viable recommendations for key stakeholders for consideration and application to achieve the intended objectives.

Legal, Regulatory, and Governance Innovation in Transnational Environmental Law

[...]disruption creates pressure for evolution in existing legal frameworks, or the creation of new legal frameworks.4 Transnational environmental law encompasses evolving understandings of ‘law’, ‘regulation’, and ‘governance’ as they relate to the global nature of many contemporary environmental problems.5 This issue of Transnational Environmental Law (TEL) highlights the diverse range of legal, regulatory, and governance innovations that continue to be experimented with in an attempt to address complex environmental challenges. [...]Duvic-Paoli analyzes the disruptive impacts of climate change on lawmaking processes, followed by pieces by Donger, Mayer, and Burgers, which focus on legal disruption in the context of climate litigation and adjudication. In Milieudefensie v. Royal Dutch Shell, the Hague District Court (the Netherlands) issued an injunction against Shell to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 45% by 2030, compared with 2019 levels.31 According to Mayer, ‘[t]he most innovative aspect of the judgment regards its interpretation of the Dutch law on torts as requiring [Shell] to take climate change mitigation action’.32 Mayer welcomes the establishment of a corporate duty of care to mitigate climate change, yet he notes that determining the content of the duty of care is ‘a challenging task’.33 In particular, he is sceptical of the Court's reliance on global mitigation objectives and climate science to determine the level of GHG emissions that Shell could emit without breaching its duty of care.34 Mayer suggests that the Court's ‘innovative decision’, and particularly its ‘methodological choices’ for determining the content of the duty of care, raise concerns that the Court is going beyond its constitutional role in interpreting and applying the law.35 He proposes an alternative methodology which applies Martti Koskenniemi's distinction between ‘descending reasoning’, in which norms are inferred from general international law principles, and ‘ascending reasoning’, in which norms are deduced from general state practice.36 While the judgment of the Hague District Court arguably reflects a strong preference for the former type of reasoning, it does not engage with ascending reasoning by considering empirical evidence of the current practices of oil-and-gas corporations. Mayer contends that a preferable approach would combine both types of reasoning by referring to international agreements and scientific reports, as well as sectoral practices among other companies.37 If the latter approach were adopted, the interpretation of the standard of care should incorporate what could be expected from an average or reasonable oil-and-gas company.38 Mayer suggests that such an approach reflects a ‘midpoint’ between ascending and descending reasoning, which is consistent with the courts’ function in applying, rather than making, the law.39 In ‘An Apology Leading to Dystopia: Or, Why Fuelling Climate Change is Tortious’,40 Laura Burgers responds to Mayer's analysis and offers a more sympathetic alternative reading of the Hague District Court's judgment.

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly.

Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10018-5.

Measurement report: The importance of biomass burning in light extinction and direct radiative effect of urban aerosol during the COVID-19 lockdown in Xi'an, China

Due to the complexity of emission sources, a better understanding of aerosol optical properties is required to mitigate climate change in China. Here, an intensive real-time measurement campaign was conducted in an urban area of China before and during the COVID-19 lockdown in order to explore the impacts of anthropogenic activities on aerosol light extinction and the direct radiative effect (DRE). The mean light extinction coefficient (bext) decreased from 774.7 ± 298.1 Mm-1 during the normal period to 544.3 ± 179.4 Mm-1 during the lockdown period. A generalised additive model analysis indicated that the large decline in bext (29.7 %) was due to sharp reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Chemical calculation of bext based on a ridge regression analysis showed that organic aerosol (OA) was the largest contributor to bext in both periods (45.1 %–61.4 %), and the contributions of two oxygenated OAs to bext increased by 3.0 %–14.6 % during the lockdown. A hybrid environmental receptor model combined with chemical and optical variables identified six sources of bext. It was found thatbext from traffic-related emissions, coal combustion, fugitive dust, the nitrate and secondary OA (SOA) source, and the sulfate and SOA source decreased by 21.4 %–97.9 % in the lockdown, whereas bext from biomass burning increased by 27.1 %, mainly driven by the undiminished need for residential cooking and heating. An atmospheric radiative transfer model was further used to illustrate that biomass burning, rather than traffic-related emissions, became the largest positive effect (10.0 ± 10.9 W m-2) on aerosol DRE in the atmosphere during the lockdown. Our study provides insights into aerosol bext and DRE from anthropogenic sources, and the results imply the importance of controlling biomass burning for tackling climate change in China in the future.